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Repair it or replace it — and the age is the wrong place to start
The biggest money decision in this trade, made most often on the least useful piece of information. What failed decides the answer. The age changes it only in the middle of the range, and on two of the five failures it does not change it at all.
The age is encoded in the serial number on the data plate, and it is frequently a decade away from what people have been told. Most manufacturers put the week and year of manufacture in the first or last four characters; the scheme differs by maker, so it is looked up rather than guessed. Photograph the whole plate. “It’s about twenty years old” is the single most common sentence used to sell a replacement, and it takes one minute to check.
A small part
Capacitors, contactors, igniters, flame sensors, pressure switches, limit switches, thermostats. These are the parts that fail most often across the whole life of a system, and they are inexpensive at every age.
A small part failing tells you almost nothing about the condition of the system. It is the most common reason a perfectly serviceable machine stops, and it is also the most common opening for a replacement conversation.
The blower motor or the inducer
A real part with a real price — enough to make the arithmetic worth doing, not enough to settle it on its own. On newer equipment a variable-speed blower module is dearer than an older direct-drive motor, and that changes the sum.
Ask why it failed. A motor that died because it has been running against a blocked filter or a crushed duct for five years will do it again, and replacing the motor without fixing the restriction is buying the same failure twice.
The compressor, or a sealed-system leak
The expensive end. A compressor is the largest single component, and a leak inside the sealed system means finding it, repairing it, evacuating and recharging — skilled work with a real chance of the same fault returning if the leak was never actually located.
The refrigerant matters here. If the system runs on R-22 the refrigerant alone is a serious cost, because it is no longer produced or imported and only reclaimed stock exists. That single fact moves a great many older systems from “repair” to “replace” on arithmetic rather than on age.
A cracked heat exchanger
This one does not go into the arithmetic at all. A cracked heat exchanger means combustion products can enter the air you breathe, and the appliance is shut off and tagged rather than run while a decision is made.
No repair is attempted on a cracked exchanger. Depending on the appliance and its age there may be a warranty claim on the part — which is worth pursuing — but the labour to change one in an older furnace frequently approaches the cost of a new appliance, and the rest of a furnace that old is the same age as the part that failed.
Nothing — it just costs a lot to run
The most common reason people start pricing a replacement, and the one where replacing first is most likely to disappoint.
A system costs more to run than it should for five ordinary reasons: duct leakage, a blocked coil, low charge from a leak, short-cycling because it is oversized, and a heat pump sitting on auxiliary electric heat when it should not be. Four of those five are also true of a brand-new system installed on the same ductwork.
Under about eight years
Young. Most major components are still within some form of manufacturer warranty on parts, and the equipment has not reached the point where several things start failing in the same season.
Find the warranty before the quote. Registration matters — many manufacturers offer a longer term if the equipment was registered within a set window after installation, and a shorter one if it was not. The model and serial numbers settle it.
Roughly eight to fifteen
The genuinely ambiguous band, and the one where an honest contractor and a less honest one give different answers to the same facts.
Parts warranty has usually expired. The equipment is not old. Whether a repair is sensible depends almost entirely on which part failed and what the repair costs against what a replacement costs — which is arithmetic you are entitled to see rather than a judgement you are asked to accept.
Over fifteen
Old enough that a large repair deserves scrutiny, and not old enough on its own to condemn anything. Plenty of twenty-year-old equipment runs correctly and efficiently because it was installed well and maintained; plenty of twelve-year-old equipment is finished because it was not.
What changes at this age is the arithmetic on big repairs, and the likelihood that the next thing will fail soon after. It does not change the answer on a capacitor.
You do not know
Extremely common and entirely fixable in a minute, and until it is fixed every conversation about this decision is being had with one side holding information the other does not.
See the note at the top. The serial number is on the plate, the plate is on the appliance, and a photograph of it is worth more than any estimate.
This is a repair at any age
The part that failed is an ordinary consumable and the cost of replacing it is nowhere near the cost of a system. Age does not change that — a capacitor on a twenty-year-old condenser is still a capacitor.
- Ask what the repair costs before agreeing to anything, and ask for it separately from any replacement quote.
- Ask why it failed. A part that failed because of a restriction, a bad connection or a charge problem will do it again.
- If you are also being quoted a replacement, that is not automatically wrong — but you are entitled to both numbers and to decide with them in front of you.
- If the system is genuinely near the end, the honest framing is “this repair is sensible and here is what to expect next”, not “it is not worth repairing”.
A major failure this early should not be yours to pay for
A compressor or sealed-system failure under about eight years is unusual, and on most equipment the part is still covered. Nobody should be quoting you a replacement system before the warranty position is established.
- Find the model and serial numbers and the installation date. Registration within the manufacturer’s window frequently extends the term.
- Parts and labour are usually separate. The part may be free and the labour not, which is a real cost but a very different one.
- Ask why it failed this early. A compressor that died at six years usually had help — low charge running for a long time, a restriction, an electrical fault, or a system that was never commissioned.
- If it is not covered, then this becomes the eight-to-fifteen arithmetic, and you should see both numbers.
This is genuinely arithmetic, not judgement
A real repair on equipment in the ambiguous band. Neither answer is obviously right, and anybody telling you it is obvious has not done the sum in front of you.
- The repair cost, written down, including parts and labour.
- The replacement cost, written down, for equipment sized from a calculation rather than matched to the old plate.
- The age from the serial number, not an estimate.
- What else is likely next. A contractor who has just had the panels off can tell you the condition of everything they saw, and that is the piece of information that actually decides it.
- What the ductwork can carry. If a new system needs more air than the ducts can deliver, the replacement quote is incomplete and you will be disappointed.
We will give you both figures and a recommendation, and we will tell you when the repair is the better bet even though it is the smaller invoice.
But it should still be shown, not asserted
A major sealed-system failure on equipment over fifteen years is the case where replacement usually does win the arithmetic — particularly on R-22, where the refrigerant cost alone can be a substantial part of the repair.
- Ask for the repair figure anyway. Not to argue, but because a recommendation you can check is worth more than one you cannot.
- Ask what the diagnosis was based on — readings, not impressions.
- Insist the replacement is sized from a heat loss and heat gain calculation. Matching the old plate repeats whatever mistake was made the first time, and equipment fitted before about 2000 was routinely far too big.
- Have the ductwork measured in the same visit. It is the most common reason a new system disappoints, and the cheapest moment to find out.
- Get the commissioning figures afterwards — airflow balanced and recorded, charge verified. Without them a new system is an unknown quantity from day one.
This one is not a money decision
A cracked heat exchanger is a safety finding. The appliance is shut off and tagged and it should not be run while anybody decides what to do next, whatever the weather is doing.
- If a carbon monoxide alarm has sounded, or anybody feels unwell, leave the building and call 911 from outside, then the gas utility. That comes before every other line on this page.
- Ask to be shown the finding, and ask for it in writing. A condemned appliance is a serious statement and a reasonable contractor will document it without being asked.
- A second opinion is entirely reasonable on a condemnation, and no competent contractor will be offended. What is not reasonable is running the appliance while you get one.
- Check the warranty on the part. Exchangers often carry a long or lifetime parts warranty; the labour usually is not covered, and on an older furnace that labour frequently approaches the cost of a new appliance.
- Ask about temporary heat if this is January. That is a real problem and it deserves a real answer rather than pressure to sign something today.
Nothing has failed, so replacing is a gamble
Replacing working equipment to cut a running cost is the one version of this decision that regularly disappoints, because four of the five things that make a system expensive to run are still true the day after a new one is installed.
- Duct leakage, tested rather than inspected. It is a number, and in a house with ducts in an attic or crawlspace it is usually the largest single figure.
- Static pressure and register airflow. High static pressure means the system is fighting the ductwork, and better equipment fights it harder.
- The condenser coil and the charge. A blocked coil or a system running short costs you continuously and neither is visible on a bill.
- Sizing. An oversized system short-cycles, never dries the air, and costs more than a right-sized one.
- Auxiliary heat on a heat pump — invisible, expensive, and a whole season goes by before anybody looks.
If those all come back clean, then a replacement on efficiency grounds is a reasonable conversation — and it will be a much better one, because you will know what the new system is being asked to work with.
Four things to ask for, in writing
The repair figure
Separately from any replacement quote, even where the repair is not recommended. A recommendation you can check is worth more than one you cannot.
The age from the serial
Not an estimate. It is on the plate, it takes a minute, and it is the number most often used loosely.
What the diagnosis rested on
Readings, not impressions. “It’s at the end of its life” is a conclusion; the measurement behind it is the evidence.
What the ductwork can carry
Measured in the same visit. It is the most common reason a new system disappoints and the cheapest moment to find out.